Stocks & Shares

38Singapore Banks

Better visibility

• Improved prospects; raise to Overweight
• NIM has reached an inflection point; potential recovery in 2014
• Asset quality intact; keep watch on unemployment and job creation
rate
• Preference for OCBC maintained

Improved prospects; raise to Overweight. We are raising Singapore banks to
overweight, both within the Singapore context and among our ASEAN banks
coverage. Besides improved prospects in 2014 coupled with possible interest
rate hikes, we believe Singapore banks provide a flight-to-safety theme in
the near term, especially when compared with its ASEAN counterparts. We
have imputed NIM recovery and stronger earnings growth for 2014. 2013
earnings will be subdued on flat NIM and normalised provisions.

NIM has reached an inflection point; potential recovery in 2014. NIM has
finally started to stabilise, as evidenced in the recent set of 2Q13
results. NIM pressure appears to be well combated. Banks have started to
price up loans. As such, banks with higher CASA composition as well as
better S$ liquidity should be well positioned. We believe OCBC is in a
better position (vs UOB) given that its S$ loan-to-deposit ratio is 84%
(UOB: 95%) while its CASA to total deposits stands at 50% (UOB: 42%).

Asset quality intact; watch unemployment and job creation rate. We believe
days of extra-low provision cycle are over; current levels of 30bps will be
the new normal. That said, Singapore banks’ asset quality is the best among
ASEAN peers. While unemployment rates should be watched closely to detect
asset quality issues, it is equally crucial to monitor job creation. While
unemployment rate has inched up to 2.1% from 1.9% in 1Q13, job creation has
increased significantly. Hence, risk to a NPL spike should be limited at
this juncture.

Preference for OCBC is a contrarian view. Despite weak contribution from
insurance in 2Q13, its banking operations were strong and solid; testimony
of the strength of its banking operations. OCBC’s exposure to China is
small vs UOB, while it has no operations in Thailand. OCBC and UOB have
relatively small exposure in Indonesia at 6% and 4% respectively. OCBC’s
Islamic banking business offers an added advantage over UOB in terms of
product offerings.

CSE Global, Buy S$0.875, Bloomberg: CSE SP

By: Bumper cash flow and IPO potential

Price Target : 12-month S$ 0.97

• 2Q13 net profit of S$12.5m (+12% y-o-y), S$127m new order wins (+10%
y-o-y), 1.5 Scts/share interim dividend were in line; S$30m operating cash
flow beat our estimate
• Potential IPO of UK business will be 6% or 15% value accretive if it
is listed at 12x or 15x PE
• Our S$0.97 TP implies 15% potential returns

1H13 profit is 48% of our full year forecast. CSE is on track to achieve
its guidance of improved core profit in FY13. It had secured S$127m of new
orders in 2Q13 despite delays in the award of large contracts from LNG
projects in Australia and Africa possibly to 2H13. In 1H13, CSE has met 44%
of our full year order win forecast of S$500m. CSE generated S$30m bumper
operating cash flow as it reduced receivables from over 100 days to 94
days, and targets to improve that further. Gearing fell to 6% from 12% in
1Q13 even after paying out S$14m final dividends.

Plan for IPO of UK business leads to immediate change in management. CSE
plans to list its UK business on the London Stock Exchange this year and
divest 100% of its stake. To facilitate the listing, Group CEO Mr. Alan
Stubbs will devote 100% of his time on the listing, while Group CFO Mr. Lim
Boon Kheng will be appointed as Interim Group Managing Director to oversee
CSE’s business. Mr Alan O’Reilly CFO (Designate) will be appointed as Group
CFO.

Listing UK business at 12x or 15x PE would lead to 6% or 15% upside
potential, respectively, for CSE. The UK business accounts for one-third of
CSE’s profits, with most of it coming from the healthcare sector. We wish
to highlight that listed IT peers in the healthcare sector in the UK are
trading at above 20x PE (see table on next page). Our S$0.97 TP for CSE is
based on 9.6x FY13F PE (its historical average). We will not switch to
blended FY13-14F EPS yet as FY14F earnings may be affected by IPO.

 

96Pan-United Corporation,

Buy S$0.91, Bloomberg: PAN SP

Acquires MIIF’s stake in CXP port
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.21 (Prev S$ 1.16)

• 2Q13 earnings within expectation
• Acquisition of MIIF’s stake in CXP is earnings accretive
• Raise FY13F/FY14F earnings by 2%/10%
• Maintain BUY with S$1.21 TP

Within expectations. Revenue grew 5% to S$190m – within expectations – driven by better Ready Mix Concrete volumes. Net profit for the quarter
included a S$2.2m doubtful debt provision relating to work for Alpine Bau GmbH at packages C917 and C918 of the Downtown Line 2 involving King Albert
Park, Tan Kah Kee and Sixth Avenue Stations. Stripping out 2Q13’s doubtful
debt provision, net earnings would have grown 11% to S$12m – within
expectations. 1H13 earnings now account for 43% (47% excluding provision)
of our forecasts.

Purchase of CXP is earnings accretive. PAN announced that it will be
buying over 34.2% of MIIF’s 38% effective stake in CXP port for a
consideration of S$101m, which values CXP at S$295m. PAN will ultimately
control 85.5% of CXP post acquisition. Based on our estimates, PAN is
acquiring CXP at 19.8x historical earnings and 13x EV/EBITDA. We believe
valuations are fair given that peers are trading at 13x EV/ EBITDA and that
the transaction is expected to be earnings accretive.

Maintain BUY, TP lifted to S$1.21. PAN’s outlook is expected to be better
going forward with MRT projects supporting organic earnings growth.
Factoring in earnings accretion from CXP, we raise our FY13F/FY14F net
profit by 2%/10%. Maintain BUY on higher TP of S$1.21 based on SOTP.

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    {I will|I’ll} {appreciate|be grateful} {if you|should you|when you|in the event you|in case
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    {Hi|Hello}, Neat post. {There is|There’s} {a problem|an issue}
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